TotalCrypto avoids providing specific “predictions”. To be fair, we try to simulate scenarios and justify our logic behind the forecasts we make. We’re looking at any and all angles while accepting the fact that something completely random could happen.
This is not financial advice. This article is purely speculative.
That said, we’re going to give some examples of where the market could go from here. We will also cover some of the news-based price catalysts that might surface in the near future.
The crypto space has grown tremendously and there are some big things happening behind the scenes. Without a doubt, new developments could lead to a substantial increase in the valuation of Bitcoin and/or other cryptos.
Before we begin … if you are new to the market, we suggest you read our technical analysis guide. In that piece, we go over how the market reached this point and how knowing TA could’ve given you an early indication of this movement.
TA Based Bitcoin Price Predictions
Firstly, we’re going to look at the technical analysis side of Bitcoin’s speculative story. If you have followed our editorial-style comments in recent trading pieces, you likely know our current perspective.
As of August 2018 we see Bitcoin trading at sub-$6,500 prices. The market did push up to around $8,500 after starting a three-week bull flag post-$6,800 breakthrough. The pump rejection means the bearish reversal is likely still on, especially with a harsh rejection as we touched the 100-day EMA line on the weekly chart. Even so, we will lay out predictions for both bullish and bearish outcomes — this gives you have an idea on the velocity of the swing once BTC moves again.
The Bearish Scenario
We’re at sub-$7,000 prices again and forming a long-time descending triangle on the weekly chart. The breakdown of key support levels (especially $6,000) will almost certainly lead to the market finding a new, much lower trading channel.
How low could we go — dare you ask?
Here’s what one trader predicts for the near-term if we do collapse from here …
More details on his calls …
Indeed, the price might move to the low $5,000’s pretty fast. The price went down by more than $600 from when the chart was posted, all within 24 hours.
We have some time to continue the descending triangle on the weekly chart. The price could become even bouncier once it plays the $5,000 to $6,000 price range. A short-term descending triangle would likely form here before the pressure becomes too much and the $4,000’s become a reality. Hypothetically speaking…
From there, if we fall far enough — the $3,000 level failing to serve as a floor once more would trend us much, much lower. In fact, when Bitcoin went over $800 it rose with a fury. We broke through the November 2013 all-time-high of $1,242 with little effort. That infamous ATH was not rigorously tested and the market never worked to build support there… mainly because BTC’s reward halving was on the horizon.
The market is much deeper and people are more actively involved now. The idea of a low $1,000 Bitcoin price seems far-fetched. However, with many overinvested folks and market manipulators playing the downside… It’s possible, but not likely, that we at least have a candle wick with a three-figure price.
The $3,000 might fail to hold with a furious bounce. Even so, we might consolidate just under this level (and maybe drop to low $2,000 or $1,800 range), before reversing upward. This territory is a long-term buy zone and it will take something catastrophic to send the price much lower than here.
If $3,000 holds it’s likely because of a stronger market participant making a move. Chances are good that we will have a tremendous upside if the $3,000 floor holds. As such, it’s certainly plausible that the price might dip to around $3,600 for a day or two before consolidating just above $5,000 as the market corrects itself.
The Bullish Scenario
We saw the market reject a bullish reversal at the 100 EMA level on the weekly chart. This rejection happened in the $8,000’s range and the entire bear flag was voided. We are in a market that is attempting to hammer at a floor that has — so far — managed to hold up.
Few experienced charters are calling a bullish reversal right now. The TA simply does not line up whatsoever, especially after the cruel rejection at the 100 EMA line. However, the following chart is certainly believable if we get a news catalyst to fuel the reversal. Keep in mind … as we go up, more people short the market and that’s multiplying demand while reducing supply.
We see an A-B-C pattern with a breakout to the upside. The price must rise above $8,500 convincely, which likely means heading to $9,000 – $9,500 before pulling back. This sustained upward correction would quickly build support under and slightly above $8,500 and many shorts would likely be underwater as we tread into the $9,000’s … Add a news catalyst and it makes sense that we would rocket past the $10,000 and $12,000 resistance levels before we pull back.
Ultimately though, the bigger picture is a very obvious story …
We currently need a break above the 100-day EMA on the weekly!
This move will invalidate the long-term downtrend after support comes through.
The resistance line is charted by looking at the previous highs since the pattern took shape. We can easily see a long-term descending triangle on the weekly… with the make or break point getting very close right now. The low $6,000’s and high $5,000’s can only get battered so much before we get a violent bounce or sudden collapse.
As it stands…
A breakout with volume and a steady uptrend starting at roughly $7,200 would negate the descending triangle that we’ve been in for the past 10 months on the daily chart. However, we need a sustained push above $8,200 to turn bullish on the weekly which is the most important chart as we’re still very much in a bear market on that timeframe.
What’s the target if we break out of this descending triangle?
The first move would be to test $10,000 and break through it with conviction. Next, we need to find steady ground above $12,000 which will be a true battle. The market can move slowly up from there while feeling out sell pressure. If huge news joins in we could see new all-time highs once again. Most likely, if we get there, the market will consolidate upward while waiting for bullish news with its finger on the trigger.
However, it’s important to note that the outcome of a descending triangle breakthrough isn’t always the same. You can’t calculate it out easily. This market could very well be suppressed right now, some traders with special insight could know we will hit a $50,000-plus within a year or so.
But the more we decay the less momentous the bullish move will be after we reverse. If the price goes to $500 for a little while, obviously we won’t see $20,000 overnight. A continuous suppression below $10,000 and $5,000 will create many resistance points. Suddenly, $10,000 will be a tough price to reach and beat … it’s all about perspective!
Our write-up here briefly outlines what potential movements we might see based on the current and recent price action. We’re not able to definitively say which way the market will move. Some variables, like an over-leveraged market, could be a catalyst for a reversal or might just lead to overthrows before more downward legs.
We recommend that you do your own research. Learn technical analysis and how to chart your own predictions. Use TradingView (the best free charting tool, includes all altcoins too) and forecast both bearish and bullish moves.
Set up your trades based on your predictions, place your stops accordingly. If you predict both up and down movement — you will hit a very profitable trade as long as you time your entry right.
Please, DO NOT underestimate the power of big news (such as Bitcoin ETF approval) as these developments can be serious price movers. If the news is big enough, the whole run-up to the previous all-time-high could inconspicuously be one giant bear trap. Plus… let’s not forget that the hype for the next Bitcoin block reward halving date (est. May 2020) will likely start getting priced in at some point next year.